An ice-cold Earth candidate named HD 137010 b offers a rare mix: a possible rocky world slightly larger than Earth, a roughly one-year orbit, and a Sun-like host bright enough for follow-up. The catch is temperature and proof.
NASA reports the candidate sits about 146 light-years away. Kepler’s K2 mission caught a single 10-hour transit. From that shadow timing, Alexander Venner and colleagues estimate an Earth-like year. The star is cooler and dimmer than the Sun, so the planet may receive less than a third of Earth’s sunlight.
Why the ice-cold Earth candidate is still provisional
Surface temperatures could fall near minus 90 degrees Fahrenheit, colder than average Mars. Modeling still gives roughly a 40% chance the world sits in a conservative habitable zone if a thicker carbon dioxide atmosphere warms it. Odds of missing the zone entirely are about even.
Confirmation needs repeated transits. An Earth-like period makes those rare. TESS or ESA’s CHEOPS may help. Otherwise, next-generation telescopes may wait years. Citizen scientists from Planet Hunters also appear on the Astrophysical Journal Letters paper published Jan. 27, 2026.
What Axo readers should watch next
If confirmed, HD 137010 b could become the first Earth-like exoplanet that crosses a nearby, bright Sun-like star from our viewpoint. That geometry matters for atmosphere studies. Until then, treat the ice-cold Earth candidate as a high-value lead, not a second Earth.
For ongoing exoplanet explainers, follow Axo Science. The value here is method clarity: one precise transit, careful orbital models, and honest limits on habitability claims.
Finally, the discovery shows retired Kepler data still yields surprises when humans and algorithms dig together.