The disruption reaches from London living rooms to Sri Lankan fishing docks, hitting transit hubs, destination economies and the fine print of travel insurance alike. With official advisories changing regularly and carriers suspending Gulf routes by the season, travellers are voting with their bookings — and Europe is winning.
Transit Hubs Upended
Dubai, Qatar and Abu Dhabi serve both as destinations in their own right and as crucial connection points for Europeans heading to Australia and Asia. When the UK Foreign Office advised against travel to the region — invalidating insurance for anyone who ignored it — the bookings collapsed. Thousands of Trailfinders clients postponed or cancelled in droves, according to agency spokesperson Nikki Davies.
That advisory has since been lifted, and Davies described “incredible pent-up demand” for travel through the Gulf again. But the disruption has already reshaped where people choose to go. “Europe is proving extremely popular as it’s closer to home and the standout destinations are Italy, Spain, Greece and Norway,” she said.
TUI, Europe’s largest tour operator, is seeing the same shift at scale. Spokesperson Aage Dunhaupt noted that 75 percent of European travellers at TUI traditionally book summer holidays in Europe — and that trend for package holidays is even stronger this year, with holidaymakers flocking to all-inclusive, protected bookings.
Airlines Cut Gulf Capacity
The European Union Aviation Safety Agency this week told airlines to avoid Jordanian airspace after renewed attacks, extending its existing warning against Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Oman until August 31. British Airways has suspended flights to Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv, and will permanently drop its London-Jeddah route. Its twice-daily London-Riyadh service will be cut to once a day when it resumes in August. Virgin Atlantic has suspended its London-Dubai route through the coming winter season.
For travellers caught mid-journey, the changes have been personal and costly. Nadia Waleed set off from London with her husband and three daughters for a holiday in Bali, continuing on to Pakistan, with stopovers in Dubai. Days before flying, her return schedule changed — a three-hour stopover stretched to 18 hours. After a two-hour phone marathon, the family secured earlier return flights from Pakistan, only for one member’s return to be pushed back by a month the next day. Emails about further schedule changes continued arriving during the holiday itself.
The Cost in Fuel and Fatigue
The mechanics of avoiding conflict airspace are counted in tonnes of fuel and hours in the air, according to Moiz Hamid, a pilot with Pakistan International Airlines. Rerouted flights typically add an extra one to two hours flying west and burn an additional 2,500 to 7,000kg (5,500-15,500lb) of fuel depending on the aircraft — a cost some airlines offset by cutting cargo payload.
The rerouting has also brought congested frequencies, GPS jamming and heavier workloads for pilots and controllers. “Flying a longer, safer alternate route does come with its own risk, the biggest factor being unfamiliarity,” Hamid said. “In normal situations you’re not flying through certain areas, but in these unusual circumstances you have to be rerouted through areas that would be deemed safe by your company, your operator and your regulator. The fatigue does go up, the extended workload does go up.”
Hamid pointed to the downing of Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243 in December 2024, blamed on navigational errors from military jamming, as a reminder of the stakes when aircraft stray off course.
Destinations With No Direct Stake Suffer
The ripple effects reach destinations with no direct stake in the conflict. London-based Sri Lankan hotelier Jean-Marc Flambert said 77 of the 87 weekly flights connecting Europe to Sri Lanka run through the Middle East, and nearly all were disrupted. “It was almost like COVID in the initial stages,” he said.
Bookings for this summer are down 20 to 30 percent industry-wide, a blow that lands hardest on those who depend on tourism. Flambert recalled a fisherman turning up at his hotel with a catch, but nobody was there to eat. “What does a fisherman do? He’d just dig a hole and chuck it.”
Families with young children have been the most likely to cancel outright, while young couples and retirees have proved far more willing to risk a longer layover or a missed connection. Operators like Flambert are patching together new routes through Thailand, Singapore and India to keep clients coming.
Independent travel agent Assra Satti saw the anxiety show up in the fine print. A family booking a July holiday to Vietnam via Istanbul wanted written guarantees before committing — would they be rerouted or reimbursed if the war disrupted their flights? Satti secured written confirmation of both options, and the family flew as planned. Her advice to nervous clients has been to book everything as a single protected package, even at a slightly higher price, “because then the whole holiday is protected.”
What Happens Next
The Middle East airspace picture will remain volatile through at least late August, when EASA’s current advisories expire. If the conflict persists, expect further Gulf capacity cuts into the winter season — Virgin Atlantic has already signalled its London-Dubai suspension will run that long. Travellers should anticipate schedule changes even after booking, and independent bookings that split airline and hotel costs carry real financial risk if a rerouting leaves a prepaid room empty.
For European destinations, the shift is a windfall that may outlast the conflict. Italy, Spain, Greece and Norway are absorbing travellers who might otherwise have transited through Dubai or Doha, and package-holiday operators like TUI are positioned to capture that demand. Destinations further afield — Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Bali — face a longer recovery, dependent on either a durable ceasefire or the construction of new routing partnerships through unaffected hubs in Southeast Asia and South Asia. Watch the August 31 EASA expiry, the resumption schedules of British Airways and Virgin Atlantic, and whether the European package-holiday surge hardens into a permanent change in booking behaviour.
— Elena Petrov, travel desk, AXO News