The White House presented the deal as a breakthrough: Hamas would hand over weapons in stages, Israel would pull back its forces in lockstep, and Gaza’s displaced population would finally see relief. Instead, 18 more people died in Israel within 72 hours of the announcement, and bombing campaigns across Gaza persisted. The gap between the American rollout and the reality on the ground could not have been wider.
Why Netanyahu Can Ignore Washington
The core problem is not that the plan was poorly drafted. It is that the Israeli prime minister has no incentive to accept it. Netanyahu’s political survival depends on a coalition that treats any concession as betrayal, and his military campaign is framed as existential. A phased disarmament deal requires him to claim victory and stop — something his government has refused to do for over a year.
Trump’s rhetoric about “monumental” progress made matters worse. By declaring success before Jerusalem had signed on, the White House handed Netanyahu a public relations problem he could simply let collapse. There was no enforcement mechanism, no credible threat of withheld aid, and no consequence for inaction. Hollow announcements invite hollow responses.
The Pressure Gap
Every Gaza ceasefire proposal of the past year has hit the same wall: the United States asks Israel to stop, Israel declines, and the asks get quieter. The Trump framework followed that pattern. It was released as a diplomatic achievement rather than a conditional demand, and so it was treated as optional.
For any Gaza deal to hold, Washington would need to attach real costs to Israeli noncompliance — conditioned military aid, explicit timelines, or public consequences for settlement expansion and continued bombing. None of that has appeared. Without it, Jerusalem has correctly calculated that waiting out an American news cycle is cheaper than agreeing to terms.
What Happens Next
Expect more of the same until the cost structure changes. Netanyahu will continue military operations, humanitarian conditions in Gaza will deteriorate further, and periodic peace announcements will surface and fade. The real question is whether Congress or the next administration will attach conditions to US security assistance — the only lever that has historically moved Israeli policy. Until that happens, any Gaza peace plan, however “monumental,” is a press release waiting to be forgotten.
— Jordan Blake, editorial desk, AXO News