September S&P 500 E-Mini futures fell 0.19% and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures dropped 0.59%, signaling a soft open for a week packed with catalysts including Nvidia’s earnings, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, and a full slate of U.S. economic data.
Chip Stocks Drag as Asia Tech Sells Off
The pre-market weakness in semiconductor names followed a broad slump across Asian tech. Samsung Electronics sank over 8% in Seoul after its record shareholder return plan failed to impress investors. Alibaba Group tumbled more than 8% in Hong Kong after raising HK$80 billion ($10.2 billion) in the city’s largest secondary share offering. SoftBank Group slid over 5% in Tokyo after unveiling plans for a record 1 trillion yen ($6.3 billion) retail bond sale to fund its AI investments.
A Bloomberg report that Nvidia told major customers AI server prices would rise more than 15% due to surging memory costs added fuel to the chip-stock selloff. The development rekindled questions about the sustainability of the AI spending boom, as rising hardware costs threaten returns just as companies pour massive sums into the technology.
Oil Retreats, Bonds Catch a Bid
Not all the morning’s moves were risk-off. WTI crude fell over 2%, snapping a six-day winning streak, as investors awaited details of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s plan to economically isolate Iran. The pullback in oil buoyed the debt market, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield down two basis points to 4.71%.
Friday’s session offered a mixed backdrop. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks jumped as Bitcoin extended its climb, with Coinbase Global up over 8% and Strategy advancing more than 6%. Tesla rose over 5% after announcing a European launch event for its all-electric semi-truck, while Ross Stores gained more than 4% on better-than-expected Q2 results and a raised full-year EPS outlook. On the downside, Marvell Technology fell over 5% and Arm Holdings dropped nearly 3%.
PMI Data and Fed Signals in Focus
Friday’s economic data showed U.S. business activity kept expanding in August, with the S&P Global flash services PMI climbing to 56.8 — matching its highest level since March 2022 and topping expectations of 53.9. The flash manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.2, below the 54.0 consensus.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, one of three officials who dissented in favor of a rate hike last month, flagged concerns over persistent inflation on CBS’s Face the Nation but stopped short of committing to another hike. “We need to see more data, but I don’t want to prejudge the next meeting,” Kashkari said. U.S. rate futures now price a 61.6% chance of no change at the September meeting and a 38.4% chance of a 25-basis-point hike.
Tariff Escalation Adds Another Risk
Trade tensions flared over the weekend. The U.S. imposed 50% tariffs early Saturday on roughly $20 billion of Canadian products — including plywood, liquor, electrical equipment, and hockey gear — after last-minute negotiations collapsed. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Saturday the country would retaliate with tariffs on $20 billion of U.S. goods starting September 8. “You’re at war when you get attacked. We got attacked,” Carney said.
What Happens Next
All eyes turn to Nvidia’s Q2 report after Wednesday’s close. The chipmaker sits at the center of the AI trade, making its results a key test for both the sector and the broader market. Investors will scrutinize updates on AI infrastructure demand, the Rubin platform ramp, China exposure, and the economics of Nvidia’s growing financing partnerships. Notably, Nvidia shares have slipped after each of its last three quarterly reports despite beating expectations — a pattern that raises the bar for any positive surprise.
Beyond Nvidia, Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech will shape rate-cut expectations, while the tariff standoff with Canada adds a fresh layer of geopolitical risk for markets already balancing sticky inflation, elevated yields, and stretched AI valuations. Watch the chip sector for follow-through selling and Treasury yields for confirmation of the risk-off tone heading into the midweek earnings catalyst.
— Hiro Tanaka, markets desk, AXO News