Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, starting a grinding conflict that now threatens severe aviation disruption for commercial carriers. Although Kyiv explicitly states it is not targeting civilian aircraft, the scale of drone activity makes flying over Russia extremely hazardous. Russian President Vladimir Putin called Zelenskyy’s warnings a “declaration of state terrorism,” underscoring the severity of the escalation.
The Drone Threat and Airport Closures
Ukraine now mass-produces drones at low cost, extending the battlefield hundreds of kilometres beyond the front lines. Ukraine’s deep-strike range has grown from about 630km in 2022 to 1,750km this year, according to risk advisory firm Osprey Flight Solutions. Drones have struck targets as far as Omsk, roughly 2,500km from Ukraine.
When drones approach Russian cities, they trigger temporary airspace restrictions, halting airport arrivals and departures for hours. Mark Brace, head of analysis at Osprey, noted that there has been an average of 30 Russian airport closures per day since the war began.
“Ukraine has consistently launched more than 500 drones near daily, with multiple days exceeding 1,000 drones,” Brace said. “This has caused frequent and extended airport closures and flight suspensions. Essentially, Zelenskyy is articulating publicly what Ukraine has been doing for months: systematically disrupting Russian airspace.”
The risk of miscalculation remains exceptionally high. Last year, Putin told Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev that two Russian missiles detonated beside an Azerbaijan Airlines plane in 2024 after Ukrainian drones entered Russian airspace, killing 38 people.
Impact on Global Flight Routes and Airlines
The Russian airspace closure remains the single biggest structural distortion in global aviation. Before February 2022, more than 360,000 flights a year passed over Siberia, the shortest path between Europe and Northeast Asia. Alex Macheras, an aviation analyst based in the Middle East, noted that many Europe-Northeast Asia routes now take two to four hours longer, while the Helsinki-Tokyo route has stretched from nine hours to 13.
“It’s a cost now factored into ticket prices, operational overheads, crew rosters, and aircraft utilisation across the entire European long-haul network,” Macheras said.
Despite the ongoing war, major airlines from China, Turkiye, the United Arab Emirates, and other Gulf states continue to use Russian airspace. US airlines complain that carriers still permitted to fly through Russia, such as Chinese airlines, enjoy an unfair airline competitive advantage with shorter routes and reduced operating costs. If Russian airspace closes to these operators, this advantage disappears.
Currently, Chinese carriers offer the fastest Europe-Asia connections by retaining Russian overflight rights. Lose that, and their schedule advantage over Gulf and Turkish hubs narrows sharply, Macheras noted. Meanwhile, Indian carriers also rely on Russian airspace for efficient Delhi-London and Delhi-New York routings. For Gulf carriers, a broader closure would likely reinforce their hub model as long-haul traffic gets pushed further south.
What Happens Next
As Ukrainian drone strikes continue, global airlines and insurers must adapt to the permanent reality of the Russian airspace closure. Alternative global flight routes through the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Middle East will become increasingly congested, especially given ongoing conflicts in the Gulf region. Airlines will face higher operational costs and longer flight times, likely driving up ticket prices for passengers. Insurers will also take a much more cautious approach when underwriting policies for flights operating near or over Russia, preventing further aviation disruption and tragedy.
— Elena Petrov, travel desk, AXO News