State and local destinations from Las Vegas to New York have spent the past year wooing Canadian visitors with discounts, billboards, and direct outreach. Those efforts now collide with a deteriorating bilateral relationship that shows no sign of easing before the next presidential term.
Numbers Tell the Story of a Persistent Shift
Canadian residents made 25% fewer return border crossings in 2025 than the year before and spent roughly $2.4 billion, or CA$3.3 billion, less on US travel, according to Statistics Canada. The agency described the pullback as a persistent shift away from the United States in Canadian travel preferences, not a temporary dip.
Canadian air travel to the US has been declining since September 2023. The drop accelerated after President Donald Trump returned to office with remarks about making Canada the 51st state, sparking a consumer-led backlash that emptied hotels, restaurants, and attractions dependent on cross-border visitors.
A brief uptick appeared in May, June, and July of 2026, driven largely by car trips and coinciding with the World Cup cohosted by the US, Canada, and Mexico. The US National Travel and Tourism Office estimates that Canadians still made fewer overnight visits in the first half of 2026 than during the same period a year earlier.
Trade War Threatens Fragile Recovery
The day after the World Cup ended, Trump announced that tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods would take effect within 30 days. The White House said the tariffs address US complaints over Canadian barriers to American automobiles, alcohol, and dairy. Canada’s government responded in kind, and relations deteriorated further after Trump ordered border-spanning Lake Ontario renamed “Lake America.” Prime Minister Mark Carney dismissed insults from Trump’s Cabinet as childish and undignified.
The timing undercut the tourism industry’s fragile momentum. Hospitality consultant Deborah Friedland of Eisner Advisory Group called it one step forward and two steps back, noting the swing from a high-profile international event to renewed negative headlines within a week.
Destinations Push Back With Discounts and Outreach
Tourism officials have not stopped trying. New York state launched a “NY Loves Canada” promotion offering discounts at hotels, restaurants, and attractions. Some downtown Las Vegas hotels are accepting the Canadian dollar at par with the US dollar to give visitors more value. Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority president Steve Hill traveled to Vancouver last month to meet travel advisers, tour operators, and airline representatives.
Brand USA, the national tourism marketing organization, is bringing its Travel Week trade-event series to Canada for the first time in October, expanding a program previously known as Canada Connect. Jennifer Adams, tourism director for the Destin-Fort Walton Beach area in Florida’s Panhandle, said she never panicked and believes her region’s welcome message remains strong.
Snowbird Season Becomes the Next Test
Large numbers of Canadian snowbirds typically head to Florida, Arizona, and California when temperatures drop. The coming winter will show whether the grassroots boycott extends into a second season. Florida saw a 7% decline in Canadian visitors in 2025, while Visit California estimated a 20% drop citing Tourism Economics data.
Friedland said she would be surprised to see a huge uptick in Canadian travel over the winter months a year from now. For destinations that rely on snowbird spending, the stakes are direct.
For Some Canadians, Politics Outweighs the Pitch
Josh Loewen, a 45-year-old marketing executive from Vancouver, said his family often visited San Diego, Portland, and Seattle but chose Mexico this year. He called the US tourism industry’s wooing a wasted effort while tensions remain high. His family has not entered the US since Trump’s inauguration and does not plan to until there is a new president.
Eileen March, a 41-year-old life coach from Calgary, made a similar choice. Trump’s 51st state rhetoric and trade policies played a role, but she also cited a broader sense of no longer feeling safe or welcome. The latest tariffs reinforced her decision to avoid US travel entirely, including flights with American layovers. She said the duration of her boycott will depend on who is elected next and the relationship they foster with Canada.
What Happens Next
The October Travel Week event in Canada will be the clearest test yet of whether national-level outreach can move the needle when political conditions remain hostile. Tourism officials will be watching winter snowbird bookings closely, since Florida, Arizona, and California depend heavily on that seasonal spending.
A weaker Canadian dollar and rising airfare and hotel prices compound the political headwinds, making US trips more expensive even for travelers who set politics aside. Without a shift in bilateral relations, the US tourism industry faces a second winter of depressed Canadian visitation and continued revenue losses that no discount campaign can fully offset.
— Elena Petrov, travel desk, AXO News