The Australian and New Zealand Council for Fire and Emergency Services (AFAC) released its latest outlook, showing increased fire danger in every jurisdiction except the ACT. Dry conditions in the east and increased fuel loads in central and northern regions are driving the widespread threat, prompting authorities to urge tourists and locals alike to prepare early.
Regional Bushfire Risk for Australia Travel
Tourists planning outback adventures or coastal getaways need to check local conditions before departing. Below-average rainfall has pushed the bushfire risk higher across southern Victoria and eastern Tasmania, including the popular destination of Flinders Island. South-east Queensland, north-eastern New South Wales, and north-west South Australia also face an increased chance of fires. Even areas expecting above-average rainfall, such as Western Australia and the Northern Territory, carry high fire risks due to heavy fuel loads and dry soil conditions. AFAC CEO Rob Webb emphasized that the variety of risk factors across different regions reinforces the need for communities—and visitors—to understand local conditions. He noted that bushfires can still occur in regions with a normal seasonal outlook, making it vital for tourists to monitor updates throughout their spring travel.
How El Niño Impacts Spring Travel Plans
The weather bureau declared an El Niño in June, and it has the potential to become the strongest on record. For those planning Australia travel, this climate pattern usually translates to reduced rainfall and higher temperatures, particularly across the eastern and southern parts of the country. While El Niño is just one of several climate drivers—alongside the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM)—its presence often creates the hottest and driest years on record. Climate models suggest a positive IOD could emerge before spring, which would exacerbate the impacts of El Niño and further complicate tourist safety. Travelers should anticipate extreme heat and pack accordingly, while remaining vigilant about fire bans and park closures.
Navigating Flash Droughts and Tourist Safety
David Bowman, a professor of pyrogeography and fire science at the University of Tasmania, noted that vegetation growth has been “prolific” in forests recovering from the 2019-20 bushfires. This creates a heavy fuel load that can quickly turn dangerous for popular nature reserves. “There’s a lot of water in the landscape, and that’s resulted in a lot of productivity, a lot of fuel,” Bowman said. “If we were to go into a summer under this El Niño where we had what we call flash droughts, which is really strong heat waves, we can switch up landscapes into extraordinarily dangerous conditions.” He warned that eastern Tasmania is already experiencing a sustained drying trend, meaning it will not take much to nudge landscapes back into a deep drought. Visitors exploring these recovering forests must prioritize tourist safety and stay alert to sudden shifts in fire danger.
What Happens Next
As the southern hemisphere transitions into its warm season, tourists should expect longer and more intense fire seasons. Following a devastating summer of wildfires in Europe, the United States, and Canada, Australian authorities are cautioning against complacency. Professor Bowman noted that while Australia’s differences in climate and geography mean it is not necessarily subject to the same fate as the northern hemisphere, the global events reinforced that fire seasons are worsening. Visitors planning trips down under should download local emergency apps, monitor regional fire service websites, and maintain flexible itineraries. While Australia boasts advanced fire management capabilities, the combination of climate change and a super El Niño means travelers must remain adaptable and ready to adjust their spring travel plans if extraordinary fire behavior emerges.
— Elena Petrov, climate desk, AXO News