Why Forecasters Now Expect a Quieter Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season may turn out to be quieter than usual, according to a newly updated forecast from Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team. The prediction, initially released in April and revised on Wednesday, points to climate patterns — especially the arrival of El Niño — as the primary reason researchers have dialed back their expectations.
It is a notable shift. The team now estimates that the Atlantic basin will see nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane — defined as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. In April, those same researchers had projected 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. The downward revision reflects evolving atmospheric signals that researchers say increasingly favor suppression of hurricane development.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued its own forecast, which similarly calls for a below-average season. Together, the two assessments offer a consensus picture: 2026 is likely to be less active than a typical year, and potentially less active than the 2025 season, which produced 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.
What “Below Average” Actually Means
Federal data define an average Atlantic hurricane season as one with 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. The Colorado State team projects that 2026’s activity will dip below 75% of that long-term seasonal average. If that holds, it would represent a meaningful decline from last year — though last year had its own unusual characteristics. No hurricanes made direct landfall in the United States in 2025, the first time that had happened in a decade. But the Caribbean was not so fortunate: Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm, devastated Jamaica and closed out the 2025 season.
The official hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with activity peaking between August and October. Storms can occur at any point within that window, and forecasters stress that timing predictions carry inherent uncertainty. Phil Klotzbach, the forecast’s lead author, noted at a news conference in April that “there are curveballs that could come our way.” The forecast will be continuously updated as the season progresses, a process closely watched by officials and residents in hurricane-prone states — particularly Florida, the Gulf Coast, and the Eastern Seaboard.
The El Niño Factor
The central driver behind the below-average forecast is a shift in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle. According to the Climate Prediction Center, El Niño — the warmer phase of this Pacific Ocean-based cycle — arrived in late spring. El Niño is defined by shifting sea surface temperatures and precipitation patterns in the Pacific, but its influence extends far beyond that ocean. It affects weather across the United States and has a well-documented relationship with Atlantic hurricane activity.
During El Niño years, Atlantic hurricanes tend to be less frequent and less intense. The mechanism involves wind shear: El Niño tends to increase wind shear across the Atlantic basin, which tears apart developing storm systems before they can organize into powerful cyclones. This is the key reason researchers lowered their projections between April and July.
The Climate Prediction Center has indicated that El Niño may intensify in the coming months and persist through at least the end of 2026. Forecasters estimate a 63% chance that El Niño will have grown strong enough by the close of this hurricane season to rank among the largest such events in the historical record, which dates back to 1950. If that materializes, the suppressing effect on Atlantic hurricane activity could be substantial.
Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures: The Wildcard
El Niño is not the only variable in play. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean represent a significant source of uncertainty in the forecast. Warmer waters provide more fuel for developing storms, while cooler waters can starve them. Colón-Burgos, a co-author of the forecast, told CBS News that how Atlantic temperature trends evolve in the coming weeks could influence future storm predictions. This is one reason the forecast is updated periodically rather than issued once and left static.
The interplay between El Niño’s suppressive influence and Atlantic sea surface temperatures creates a tension that forecasters must navigate. A strong El Niño could dampen activity even if Atlantic waters remain warm. Conversely, if El Niño weakens unexpectedly and Atlantic temperatures climb, the season could turn out more active than projected. This is the nature of hurricane forecasting: it is a real-time assessment of competing atmospheric forces.
Landfall Probabilities and the Danger of Complacency
The current forecast estimates a 32% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline in 2026, and a 35% chance of one making landfall in the Caribbean. These figures refer specifically to major hurricanes — storms with winds of at least 111 mph. They do not account for less powerful storms, which can still cause significant damage through flooding, storm surge, and high winds.
Michael Bell, who co-authored the forecast, addressed this in a statement: “It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you.” It is a point that forecasters return to every year, because below-average seasons can still produce devastating individual storms. A quiet season does not mean zero risk.
Colón-Burgos emphasized that communities vulnerable to hurricane hazards should “take it seriously” regardless of the statistics. She said encouraging people to start preparations in advance and remain alert no matter what the forecast says “is one of the most important things that we want to get across.” She also offered a straightforward recommendation: “We always recommend, to coastal residents, to prepare the same way for every season.”
How Storms Get Named and Classified
The World Meteorological Organization maintains a predetermined list of names assigned to each year’s tropical storms and hurricanes. For 2026, the first named storm was Arthur, followed alphabetically by Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, and Fay. The list continues through Vicky and Wilfred, though not every letter of the alphabet is represented — letters like Q, U, X, Y, and Z are excluded.
The classification system is based on wind speed. According to the National Hurricane Center, a storm receives a name when its maximum sustained winds reach 39 mph. At 74 mph, it becomes a hurricane. “Major” hurricane status is reserved for storms with winds of at least 111 mph, corresponding to Category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. These storms are capable of catastrophic damage, as demonstrated by Hurricane Melissa’s Category 5 assault on Jamaica last year.
A Season to Watch, Even if It’s Quiet
The convergence of a developing El Niño and the potential for a historically strong event makes the 2026 season scientifically interesting, even if the storm count is low. Researchers will be monitoring not just how many storms form, but how the broader atmospheric conditions evolve — and whether the forecast holds or requires further revision. The history of hurricane prediction is full of seasons that defied expectations in one direction or another.
For now, the best available science points toward a quieter-than-average Atlantic hurricane season. But as forecasters consistently remind the public, preparation should not be calibrated to the forecast. It should be calibrated to the possibility that any single storm — regardless of the broader seasonal trend — can upend lives and communities. The 2025 season, with its zero U.S. landfalls but a Category 5 strike on Jamaica, is a case study in that reality.