The sudden de-escalation averted an offensive that Trump characterized as “the biggest attack since World War II.” The announcement immediately impacted global energy markets, causing oil prices to drop as traders reacted to the reduced threat of disruptions through the critical Strait of Hormuz.
Middle East Diplomacy and Market Relief
Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday, Trump detailed the last-minute decision to stand down. He noted that Iran and regional partners had urged him to “hold off” on military action because the “perimeters” of an agreement had been reached.
“We were all set to go,” Trump said. “The reason they asked is [that] they think there’s a deal. There’s a deal on Hormuz, and there will be a deal on the nuclear.”
The president specifically credited Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, along with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, for urging restraint over the weekend. This wave of Middle East diplomacy successfully paused a military operation that Trump claimed would have derailed prospects for a negotiated end to the months-long conflict.
Global markets responded swiftly to the diplomatic pivot. In Asian trading on Monday morning, Brent Crude oil fell by 4.5% to $83.98 (£62.26). US-traded oil dropped by 4.6% to $80.74 (£59.85). Energy prices have experienced significant volatility since the conflict began on February 28, driven largely by the risk to shipping lanes. Roughly 20% of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas typically flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Disputed Accounts Over the Strait of Hormuz
Despite Trump’s assertions that Tehran requested a pause, Iranian officials have strongly denied the claim. Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency dismissed the president’s statement as “nothing but a new lie,” asserting that Tehran had not asked the United States to hold off on further military action.
However, diplomatic channels regarding the Strait of Hormuz appear active. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Sunday that negotiations with Oman regarding a deal on the strait were “on track for finalisation,” according to Iranian media reports. This aligns with Trump’s assertion that a framework for the waterway has been established, even as broader nuclear discussions remain uncertain. Securing this vital choke point is a primary national security interest for the United States and its allies.
Escalation Risks and Previous Negotiations
The path to Monday’s negotiations has been marked by severe rhetoric. In a Saturday post on Truth Social, Trump declared the US was “locked and loaded and ready to go against the Islamic Republic of Iran, at levels of Military Terror, Strength, and Power not seen since World War II.” He framed the cancellation of the attack as necessary “for the future benefit of the world and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran.”
This is not the first time the administration has used extreme threats to force diplomatic engagement. On April 7, Trump warned that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if Iran refused to engage in peace talks, threatening to destroy civilian infrastructure and power plants. That threat successfully catalyzed historic face-to-face talks in Pakistan, led by Vice-President JD Vance, though those negotiations ultimately failed to produce a deal. The failure of the Vance-led talks highlights the deep mistrust between Washington and Tehran, a dynamic that continues to threaten regional stability.
Iranian officials remain highly cautious. Acting Defence Minister Majid Ibn al-Reza stated that Tehran views every threat from its adversaries as “real and credible” even if it is psychological warfare. “We will neither be caught off guard nor remain passive,” he warned. When pressed on whether the canceled strikes targeted Iranian energy infrastructure—an action international law experts say could constitute a war crime—Trump declined to answer.
Domestic Political Calculus
Beyond the geopolitical ramifications, the administration faces mounting pressure at home. The ongoing war and its cascading economic impacts have proven broadly unpopular with the American public. Polling data indicates widespread dissatisfaction with the handling of the conflict, a trend that extends to many Republican voters.
This domestic unease has triggered alarm among conservative strategists looking ahead to the November midterms. With voters expressing fatigue over foreign entanglements and rising energy costs, the administration has largely dismissed the polling data while simultaneously seeking a diplomatic off-ramp to stabilize the region.
What Happens Next
The immediate focus shifts to the Monday afternoon Trump Iran talks, though critical details remain unconfirmed. The White House has not disclosed the venue for the negotiations or the officials who will be in attendance. The president also declined to outline a specific deadline for reaching an agreement, stating, “We’ll just see how it is. We’re ready to go anytime we want… I’m not looking to kill people.”
Observers are closely watching whether the Oman-brokered Strait of Hormuz agreement will be formally finalized, potentially easing global energy markets. However, the historical pattern of this conflict suggests that tit-for-tat strikes could easily resume if the new round of talks falters. The success of Monday’s engagement will likely determine if the region steps back from the brink of a historic military confrontation or plunges back into instability ahead of the November midterms.
— Sofia Alvarez, world desk, AXO News